I was always the unlucky person. Always missed the bus, left with a punctured tyre on my bicycle on an exam day, never could hit the right answers on any competitive exams and in love, never could spell out the right words at the right time...the list is endless. Even I had to and still have to fight for the slightest things that are available to the luckier herds so easily.
This made me think about the factor called luck time and again. From the perspective of mathematics, one could still explain it through the theory of probability but how about the biology of luck? Can we explain it?
Luck through the theory of probability
Its easy. The classic example of tossing a coin provided in all text books of probability says it all. If you toss a coin once you have a 50/50 chance of getting a head. You also run a 50/50 chance of having a tail. Now the lucky ones will always get a head and the unlucky ones will always have tail. However, if you toss the coin twice, you have a lucky situation of having head all 2 times and an unlucky situation of having tail twice. But it is the third situation where you end up getting head once and tail once which is more common occurrence. People get lucky in some situations and remain unlucky in others. We can increase the probability of this situation by increasing the number of attempts. For example, if you toss the coin 10 times, you probably could get lucky in 5 attempts and unlucky in the rest of them. Lucky nerds can still get lucky on all ten attempts, although a rare occurrence, still, you are in a competitive situation. Thus, we may infer that increasing the number of attempts increases our probability of getting lucky. And this is where the biological perspective becomes important.
Albert Einstein once remarked, "God doesn't play dice" and you were so wrong Mr Einstein. Yes God was always lucky. We never heard of any unlucky God in any culture. That is because of the reference frame. Its like tossing a coin with head on both sides. The plethora of life forms that surround us are the examples of God's playing dice. If we consider that evolution is in play as we continue to live our lives and it is happening right now as we speak, then the genetic recombination that gives rise to stronger, more adaptive species is continuous and expansive. The better genetic variants (luckier ones) has more survival advantage. Another example: luckier people are definitely having an edge over the unlucky ones in terms of natural selection and struggle for existence. The monkey who gets a lot of bananas all the time easily and luckily will be healthy and will give rise to a healthier offspring than the monkey who has to exhaust all his energy to fight and get a single banana and still remain hungry and irritated.
But it is a double edged sword. Although the examples I provided in the preceeding paragraph are theoretically sound and looks very advantageous for luckier people, from another perspective they may not be that advantageous. Being unlucky sometimes encourages us to explore more possibilities and to make another attempt. This endeavor actually makes us more strong finally whereas the luckier ones are more vulnerable. Genetically, the more recombination, mutation, addition etc, our genome has, the more flexible we are in terms of response to a particular environmental stimulus. That's why we are more adaptive to our environment than the Neanderthals.
So, what does it mean by the end of the day? It is good to be unlucky sometimes and take another shot instead of giving up. That makes us stronger and versatile and puts us in real advantage.
This made me think about the factor called luck time and again. From the perspective of mathematics, one could still explain it through the theory of probability but how about the biology of luck? Can we explain it?
Luck through the theory of probability
Its easy. The classic example of tossing a coin provided in all text books of probability says it all. If you toss a coin once you have a 50/50 chance of getting a head. You also run a 50/50 chance of having a tail. Now the lucky ones will always get a head and the unlucky ones will always have tail. However, if you toss the coin twice, you have a lucky situation of having head all 2 times and an unlucky situation of having tail twice. But it is the third situation where you end up getting head once and tail once which is more common occurrence. People get lucky in some situations and remain unlucky in others. We can increase the probability of this situation by increasing the number of attempts. For example, if you toss the coin 10 times, you probably could get lucky in 5 attempts and unlucky in the rest of them. Lucky nerds can still get lucky on all ten attempts, although a rare occurrence, still, you are in a competitive situation. Thus, we may infer that increasing the number of attempts increases our probability of getting lucky. And this is where the biological perspective becomes important.
Albert Einstein once remarked, "God doesn't play dice" and you were so wrong Mr Einstein. Yes God was always lucky. We never heard of any unlucky God in any culture. That is because of the reference frame. Its like tossing a coin with head on both sides. The plethora of life forms that surround us are the examples of God's playing dice. If we consider that evolution is in play as we continue to live our lives and it is happening right now as we speak, then the genetic recombination that gives rise to stronger, more adaptive species is continuous and expansive. The better genetic variants (luckier ones) has more survival advantage. Another example: luckier people are definitely having an edge over the unlucky ones in terms of natural selection and struggle for existence. The monkey who gets a lot of bananas all the time easily and luckily will be healthy and will give rise to a healthier offspring than the monkey who has to exhaust all his energy to fight and get a single banana and still remain hungry and irritated.
But it is a double edged sword. Although the examples I provided in the preceeding paragraph are theoretically sound and looks very advantageous for luckier people, from another perspective they may not be that advantageous. Being unlucky sometimes encourages us to explore more possibilities and to make another attempt. This endeavor actually makes us more strong finally whereas the luckier ones are more vulnerable. Genetically, the more recombination, mutation, addition etc, our genome has, the more flexible we are in terms of response to a particular environmental stimulus. That's why we are more adaptive to our environment than the Neanderthals.
So, what does it mean by the end of the day? It is good to be unlucky sometimes and take another shot instead of giving up. That makes us stronger and versatile and puts us in real advantage.